VUCA Past and Present — What Gives?
The acronym VUCA first appeared in 1987 when students from the US Army War College explored Warren Nanis and Burt Nanus’s leadership theories. VUCA stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, referring to a world rife with unknown phenomena. The lack of a predictable structure results in widespread panic and fear, causing individuals, groups, and organisations to stall in their tracks.
VUCA closely relates to unforeseeable events that occur on a large scale with destructive social and economic consequences. Some examples include financial crises, economic downturns, terrorism, Brexit, and most recently, the COVID-19 outbreak. A VUCA situation requires decision-makers to think outside of the box and replace straight and narrow paths with the curves of creativity and pragmatism.
However, one question remains. Have VUCA situations retained their characteristic unpredictabilities, or have they become a paradox — easily untwisted and resolved with a standard set of countermeasures? Does the global pandemic/new normal provide novel difficulties, or are they familiar problems veiled in a slightly different context?
To achieve a better understanding, we’ll need to consult the attitudes, losses, rate of change, and available resources during various VUCA periods. The new normal demands nerve-wracking changes, but is it truly something “new” to society, and if so, are we better prepared now?
The Significant Impact of Technology
The power of technology continues to grow as engineers, entrepreneurs, and innovators exceed traditional tech limitations. Industries have benefited from the 4th industrial revolution, which saw the rise of big data, mixed reality media, the Cloud, and IoT, among other digital conveniences. The age of technology makes it possible for organisations to manage remote operations with minimal fuss — the COVID situation would have been more disastrous (on an operational and economic scale) if it occurred a few decades earlier.
VUCA warrants immediate organisational responses, which becomes more manageable with modern technology’s connectivity and accessibility. Current organisational leaders and decision-makers have a vast reservoir of resources and advanced tools to help them tackle VUCA obstacles better than their predecessors.
Change is Constant, but the Rate Differs
Sudden disasters and outlier events come and go since the dawn of civilization. World War II, the great depression, mergers and separations, and everything in between have occurred when least expected. Each VUCA situation contained critical junctures that required swift and innovative approaches. The fundamental concept of change remains the same, sometimes occurring at a magnitude and trajectory that nobody expects. However, with advanced technology, leaders need to consider additional external factors, the rate of change, and the impact of cyber ramifications.
For example, improved data accessibility makes it easier for malicious individuals to exploit temporary vulnerabilities during a crisis. During the COVID-19 outbreak, hackers assumed the identity of WHO and CDC authorities and siphoned funds from unsuspecting victims through phishing tactics. Another growing digital problem comes from fake news, where employees may pick up inaccurate and potentially harmful information that may compromise their morale and engagement levels.
The growing popularity of social media and cloud storage technologies makes it easy to circulate fraudulent news and spread the extent of the damage. Malicious parties may impersonate trusted co-workers and acquire privileged information based on confidence. Modern VUCA leaders need to safeguard their employees and resources by limiting the blast radius within the digital landscape and being aware of the double-barreled uses of online/digital solutions.
Remote Management Priorities
Unlike past VUCA times, where leaders need to strengthen on-site collaborations, there is a growing need for remote capabilities. Leaders need to discover the most effective way to maintain robust teamwork across the distance. An established remote work structure enables organisations to maintain maximum output when direct collaboration becomes impossible.
Leaders can help optimise remote management by establishing a strong foundation. For example, organisations may provide or guide employees with the technical components necessary in setting up a home office. These include volume settings, camera adjustments, and reliable security systems.
Additionally, leaders may encourage scheduling practices where employees can achieve work-life balance while staying engaged in their roles. Employee burnout remains a real and pressing issue in the long-term with increasingly blurred lines in working hours.
The Harvard Business Review highlighted three practical ways to score a healthy balance: maintaining social and physical boundaries, creating temporary boundaries (normalising virtual check-ins), and focusing on the most critical tasks.
Refocusing on Antifragility
Ultimately, the concept of a VUCA world remains relatively unchanged from when the term came about more than three decades ago. The only significant change comes from solutions and how leaders can manage and contain a situation from a remote position. Mindset plays a vital role in driving leaders for success, and constant optimism sets the pace. Therefore, leaders should always stay calm and make the best out of a precarious and unpredictable situation.
Award-winning author Nicolas Taleb shares an empowering notion known as antifragility. Antifragility is the state of functioning where the individual or group becomes resilient and possibly unbreakable — by gaining from the unknown. VUCA breeds fragility, the polar opposite of antifragility. Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity cause leaders to drop their guard and shatter all defences. When unprepared or unready, organisations can suffer crushing losses or setbacks from a VUCA shock factor.
However, there lies a strong correlation between fragility and antifragility. Taleb recognises antifragility as progress, and progress in its essence leads to success and longevity. Gradually, after a VUCA situation’s initial wave of horror, fear, and disconcertedness, the process hardens and refines organisational leaders to upgrade and improve themselves. VUCA situations serve as harsh teachers that impart valuable lessons that no other source could ever replicate.
Regardless of time, technology, or place, VUCA leadership requires decision-makers to learn, adapt, and develop themselves from the immediate present. Whether it is the financial crisis of 97’, the pandemic, or come what may, VUCA ensures leaders take care of themselves and their most precious resource — the workforce.
